Modeling the decarbonization trajectories of the Moroccan agri-food industry: a prospective analysis with OSeMOSYS

Abstract

This study analyzes the decarbonization trajectories of the Moroccan agri-food industry by 2050 in a context of strengthening climate policies and increasing exposure to the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). A bottom-up energy optimization model based on OSeMOSYS was developed to evaluate four scenarios: baseline (BAU), deep decarbonization (DO), national strategy (SN) and carbon tax (TC). The results show that an 85% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through the electrification of thermal processes and the massive deployment of high-temperature heat pumps (heat pumps). This transition increases the cost of the system by about 15%, with a marginal abatement cost of €51/tCO₂. The CBAM's prospective analysis indicates a cumulative cost of around €422 million between 2025 and 2050. However, a carbon tax alone does not allow for a profound technological transformation. The success of the transition therefore requires a decarbonisation of the electricity system and investment support mechanisms.

Keywords: Industrial decarbonization, Agri-food industry, Morocco, OSeMOSYS, Heat pumps, Carbon tax, Energy efficiency